As the world's largest steel exporter, China accounted for approximately 18% of global steel trade volume in 2025. License management will directly reduce the export scale of low-cost steel, potentially widening the global steel supply gap in the short term. Major import markets for Chinese steel, such as the EU and Southeast Asia, will face upward price pressure. Estimates indicate that a 10% reduction in China's steel exports could push up the global average steel price by 5%-8%.

Traditional steel-producing countries such as the EU and the U.S. will benefit from China's export controls, with their domestic steel enterprises expected to gain a larger market share. Emerging markets like Southeast Asia and the Middle East may accelerate the development of their local steel industries to reduce reliance on Chinese steel. Steel capacity expansion plans in countries such as India and Vietnam may be implemented ahead of schedule.

China's export control policy may trigger adjustments to global steel trade rules. Steel trade disputes under the WTO framework may increase, and countries may strengthen protection for their steel industries. Green steel standards are expected to become a new trade barrier, while the achievements of China's steel industry in green transformation will emerge as a new advantage in global competition.

License management will drive China's steel industry to shift from "volume expansion" to "quality improvement." Exports of high-energy-consuming and low-value-added steel products will be strictly restricted, forcing enterprises to phase out outdated capacity. The concentration of the steel industry will further increase, and large steel enterprises, leveraging their technological and financial advantages, will secure more export quotas and potentially expand their market share.

Export controls will encourage Chinese steel enterprises to increase R&D investment and enhance self-sufficiency in high-end steel products. The process of import substitution in areas such as automotive steel and high-end equipment steel may accelerate, with green steel technology becoming a key competitive focus. Commercial applications of technologies like hydrogen metallurgy and carbon capture may be advanced, positioning China's steel industry to take the lead in the global green transition.

Export controls will drive China's steel industry to adjust its market structure, placing greater emphasis on domestic demand. Steel enterprises will increase support for emerging industries such as new energy and high-end manufacturing, and the regional layout of the industry may be further optimized. Steel production capacity in coastal areas may shift inland to better align with domestic market demand.

In recent years, China's steel industry has faced a growing number of trade frictions. The implementation of the export license management policy is a key measure for China to address global trade protectionism, helping to safeguard the security of the domestic steel industry. Additionally, this policy will enable China to gain more say in formulating global steel trade rules, promoting the development of global steel trade in a more fair and reasonable direction.

The steel industry is a key source of carbon emissions in China. The export license management policy will work in tandem with carbon reduction policies to drive the green transition of the steel industry. The policy will encourage steel enterprises to increase investment in green technology R&D, improve energy efficiency, reduce pollutant emissions, and achieve sustainable development.

The export license management policy will drive China's steel industry to enhance overall competitiveness and cultivate a group of world-class steel enterprises with global influence. Leveraging their technological, brand, and market advantages, these enterprises will occupy a leading position in global steel market competition, providing strong support for China's high-quality economic development.

Export controls may lead some steel enterprises to face issues such as reduced orders and overcapacity, exerting certain pressure on their operations in the short term. Adjustments to global steel trade rules may also increase the difficulty for Chinese steel enterprises to participate in global competition.

The policy's implementation will drive China's steel industry to achieve quality upgrading, technological innovation, and green transformation, enhancing the industry's overall competitiveness. The continuous upgrading of domestic market demand will provide broad space for the development of the steel industry, while the rapid growth of emerging industries such as new energy and high-end manufacturing will drive increased demand for high-end steel.

Steel enterprises should proactively adjust their development strategies, increase R&D investment, improve product quality, expand the domestic market, and achieve sustainable development. The government should strengthen policy guidance, improve supporting measures, and create a favorable environment for the transformation and development of the steel industry. Additionally, it should actively participate in the formulation of global steel trade rules to safeguard the legitimate rights and interests of China's steel industry.

In summary, the implementation of China's steel export license management policy will have a profound impact on both the global steel market and China's steel industry. Guided by the policy, China's steel industry is expected to achieve a transformation from "scale expansion" to "quality upgrading," occupying a more favorable position in global steel market competition. Meanwhile, the global steel market will also face new development opportunities and challenges, and steel industries around the world need to respond proactively to jointly promote the sustainable development of the global steel industry.